It will not be possible to achieve the objectives of this manifesto without a right public opinion which is able to absorb a new truth and change accordingly. To change one type of public opinion based on ideology, as at present, with another again based on ideology will be a disservice to the peoples of Pakistan or to any people and civilization.
For illustration of this point, therefore, to repudiate ideology so that history is freed to be set right, consider the following questions:
- Why Jammu and Kashmir did not become a part of Pakistan peacefully in 1947?
- Why Punjab Massacre of 1947 occurred?
- After partition, why there was delay in the making of constitution of Pakistan?
- Why Army Action was launched in East Pakistan in (midnight 25 March) 1971?
- Why Ayub, Yahya, Zia and Musharraf were able to impose Martial Laws in Pakistan?
- Why Bhutto after making Simla Accord of 1972 repudiated it by continuing confrontation with India?
- Why Musharraf started conflict with India in Kargil?
- Why Pakistan became American agent for money and participated in the break-up of Afghan society in the name of jehad against the Soviet Union?
- Why Pakistan helped Americans in the occupation of Afghanistan and became their ally in the so-called ‘War on Terror’, which was a deception for attacks on Muslim countries?
10 Why Musharraf, Benazir and Zardari entered into an unholy alliance and successfully committed ‘The Great Fraud’ against the peoples of Pakistan?
If these questions are rightly answered, it will be found that the decision-makers were invariably wrong. If they were not selfish and/or fools, they had personal defects and were ideology-driven. The result was that in every case, people were misled and they suffered consequently.
Generally, although not precisely these questions, matters relating to them have been the subject matter of my various writings. In answer to the question No. 1, if you are told that basically Jinnah and his Muslim League and not the British or the Indian National Congress were responsible for Pakistan not getting Jammu and Kashmir at the time of Partition, it will be unbelievable for you. But this is the bitter truth. This is the role of ideology. The ideologues manufacture a falsehood, which they think is beneficial to their class, and make others believe in it.
Anyhow, the Question No. 1 has been answered in the chapter ‘The Question of Kashmir’ (to be considered a part of this manifesto) of my work ‘Our Moment of Truth’ (2002). Question No. 7 (Simla and Bhutto) has been touched and answered in my work ‘The destructive ambition of Musharraf – An inquiry into his mind and behaviour’ (2007). And Question No. 11 has been answered in the chapter ‘The Great Fraud’ of this manifesto.
But confusion and ideology has been made to reign supreme in the minds of our people. Nothing except slavery and insult has been our fate with this public opinion. Therefore, with this public opinion in place, the elites get away with their crimes as they have made people unthinking but shouting crowds. And by making a small part of them partners in corruption and many others its candidates the elites have been able to successfully preempt dangers to their rule. Therefore we need an honest, enlightened, focused, open, frank, hopeful and non-sectarian public opinion, which should really believe that our future lies in genuine work. And such a public opinion does not lie on the shelf. It has to be built. And for this, the repudiation of ideology is so obvious where they connected Islam, creation of Pakistan and anti-Hinduism and therefore anti-Indianism by making a cobweb of falsehood around people and enslaving them for more than half of a century. Therefore, a great struggle lies ahead.
And, in this context, some of the ideology-related changes we envisage for ‘Pakistan’s New Direction’ cannot remain unappreciated by the honest and the truthful who feel Pakistan’s good future very close to their hearts.
Propaganda against India: We will stop propaganda against India immediately, which has been an integral part of the State of Pakistan throughout its life. In line with this we will stop ‘Wahgha Show’ or change its format. What goes on there presently does not create respect in the citizens of either country for the other side, which is necessary.
Jammu & Kashmir: The chapter ‘The Question of Kashmir’ of my work ‘Our Moment of Truth’ (2002) is part of this manifesto. Therefore, we seek peace in Jammu and Kashmir on both sides of the Line of Control. And we will resolve this issue with India peacefully, which should be acceptable to the peoples of Jammu and Kashmir on both sides of the LoC. I believe, it will not take long time.
Pakistan’s Atom Bomb and Non-Proliferation: Pakistan’s atom bomb is the consequence of ideology and is India specific. We will change this scenario so that our country is not endangered from the Indian side. When our policies achieve normalcy, we will prefer not to have the atom bomb. But the question is how not to have it? Something fruitful for the Muslim world and humanity must come out of our so strenuous efforts and investment in becoming a nuclear state.
But what is the overall world scene? In my work Labbaik Allahhumma Labbaik (2004), I wrote: “The culture to sit on atomic and other deadly weapons, now they collectively call ‘weapons of mass destruction’ or WMD was initiated by America, reared and led by America and is now maintained by America. … Earlier the Americans had even tasted their use on the civilian population of Japan, when, in fact, they were not threatened! … And today they are comfortable with their WMD arsenals. … But American “democracy” is rotating in a vicious circle of its own and is not opening up to the most crucial question of our time – disarmament. For instance, in the present [2004] ongoing election campaign in America disarmament does not exist as an issue. Further their ideologues have made the ruling circles culturally blind and the result is that they plunged themselves into the present conflict with the Muslim world with a passion. … So we feel that nuclear-armed America where Zionists are free to play their games is the biggest threat for the Muslim world today. Peoples of America have to act here and now and not let crimes against humanity and civilization happen in their name. Peoples of the world have a historical job to do – to disarm America of its WMD arsenals. ‘Non-proliferation’ is a deception. We must not be distracted by Dr. A. Q. Khan, Libya, North Korea, Iran or whatever. Possession of weapons of mass destruction by the United States is the ‘mother of all crimes’ of our time. Peoples of the world must unite to eliminate this crime from the face of the earth.”
Within this larger nuclear reality is the nuclear sub-reality of Israel. Pakistan’s voluntary offer to leave nuclear status should help in disarming Israel of its nuclear arsenal and at the same time making the issue of general nuclear disarmament world’s priority. Policies will be made for practical measures to achieve these objectives.
Armed Forces: The present forms and contents, concepts and trainings, sizes and capabilities, centrally or at sub-formation levels, in short collectively the ‘hardware and software’ of our armed forces at every level need to be totally recast to meet the needs of the future. The transformation of the armed forces is long overdue, but it can only be undertaken on the foundation of a political transformation of the country we envisage in this manifesto.
There are so many new ideas and so many new experiences that it will be possible to reduce defense budget drastically and at the same time enhance the potency of the defense posture. There will be a great relief for the people because the State will be able to make more investment to improve their economic well-being.
Option of Neutrality: We will continue to consider the question of making Pakistan and if possible the region – Pakistan-Afghanistan – neutral to compensate for the lost years and decades in building our country/countries. As we proceed forward, the issue will become clearer.
Rebuilding Afghanistan: We will take steps that India and Pakistan jointly and in a coordinated way play a leading part in the building of Afghanistan along with Iran and other well-wishers. On our part, we will struggle to put in place whatever is needed to achieve this objective for the benefit of the region and the world at large.
Line of Control: We will accept Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir as international boundary between Pakistan and India. Having accepted that, we will try and evolve practical systems that without adversely affecting the administration of Indian or Pakistani side, there remains no restriction on crossing this line from either side of it. And if there is resistance or less cooperation from the Indian side, we will not abandon our efforts and continue to prepare ourselves with deeper commitment and wait that the other side is ready to implement necessary measure on its side. As technologies are available for such efforts to succeed, there is no reason that such measures are not implemented generally between Pakistan and India. Obviously nothing should be done in haste. There should be step-by-step measures without unreasonably dislocating the ongoing life of the people. And there has to be a broad-based acceptance of these measures in India and Pakistan generally and in particular amongst the peoples of the concerned areas.
Durand Line: We will consider as if the Durand Line has evaporated in the air, as if it never existed. With this idealistic state of mind, we will start to transform the present day reality so that there is no restriction on people to cross the border from either side. We will continue to prepare ourselves even if there is some opposition in either country or slow movement or less cooperation from Afghanistan side. As for us it is a question of fundamental commitment – in fact, it is our faith – that problems left by history must not be left unattended, therefore we will continue to prepare our side while waiting with inexhaustible faith for the Afghan people to get ready. And we believe that the present era is giving mankind chances to come closer, clear doubts and prejudices and make human life more secure and more fruitful.
Council of Islamic Ideology: Council of Islamic Ideology will be disbanded. ■
WAPDA Reforms
WAPDA (Water and Power Development Authority) has been bifurcated into two distinct entities i.e. WAPDA and Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO). WAPDA is responsible for water and hydropower development whereas PEPCO is vested with the responsibility of thermal power generation, transmission, distribution and billing. PEPCO has been fully empowered and is responsible for the management of all the affairs of corporatized nine Distribution Companies (DISCOs), four Generation Companies (GENCOs) and a National Transmission & Power Dispatch Company (NTDC).
Then ‘they’ have also created National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), which declares – of course rhetorically – that its mission is to “strive to develop and pursue a Regulatory Framework, which ensures the provision of safe, reliable, efficient and affordable electric power” to the electricity consumers of Pakistan.
All this has been done for the “Privatization of the Pakistan Power Sector”. Accordingly KESC (The Karachi Electric Supply Company), not part of WAPDA, was privatized in November, 2005.
Therefore, WAPDA is no longer it used to be. Although since its inception, a Water and Power Development Authority, but for the people it was their ‘mahkma bijli’ or the department of electricity. And this mindset has not changed. Therefore here for the purpose of this manifesto, ‘WAPDA’ will mean everything whatever is there, public or private, about electricity in Pakistan. Even Karachi’s KESC and IPPs, are included. This is to simplify matters while we struggle to find and develop simple and workable basic ideas on which a durable but flexible structure can be built.
To begin with, we out rightly and straightaway reject the very idea of privatization of WAPDA, and therefore of KESC. Whatever has been done in this direction has been a huge wastage of resources provided by foreigners along with their bad advices. Such and other practices are continuing to burden the people more and more. All this has made WAPDA still more top heavy which naturally made its failure even bigger than what otherwise it would have been. The result has been that the intensity of load shedding overall, if not always, went up. This being a perennial phenomenon in Pakistan, but perhaps the worst phase of load shedding started sometime before the Elections 2008.
This situation has to end once and for all. We commit to achieve that in the shortest possible time and make load shedding in Pakistan history.
When a catastrophe occurs, even the acute problems are forgotten or pushed to the background. Load shedding should not be allowed to do this with us. Even without load shedding, WAPDA is too exploitive to its honest consumers. It is too top heavy. In fact at every level, it has more employees than really needed, a sort of unnecessary overgrowth everywhere. Even if we do not object to its present structure of sub-divisions/ divisions etc, there are many posts, which really are redundant when you evaluate their utility with reference to the real obligations of the departments to its consumers. And then, I believe, nobody from the department’s side can say that the present structure itself is worth keeping.
There has never been a think tank in WAPDA or higher up in the ministry. Once created in 1958, it continued to expand unnecessarily by creating new jobs for or in the interest of those who had become influential in the department or to accommodate other influences from the outside. One can say that no change or expansion was ever conceived or implemented from the consumers’ perspective. Due to such practices even the most essential or inevitable steps would remain doubtful. And there was never any WAPDA chairman who was a reformer. The chairmen behaved like ‘Mughal governors’ or ‘viceroys’. They only exercised power. And those who were unscrupulous benefited themselves and their cronies according to their capabilities. The result has been that if seen from the peoples’ side, WAPDA has become virtually synonymous with corruption.
But the biggest problem is perhaps even bigger than all others combined. It is the theft of electricity. It is not only the biggest but also the most chronic problem WAPDA faces today. Transmission and distribution losses are normally called line losses. This is the electricity consumed in wires and converted to heat during its flow. And line losses will increase if the wires are undersized and/or of poor quality. While line losses are an integral part of any and therefore of WAPDA’s distribution system, theft is NOT. How strange that WAPDA’s ‘line losses’ are theft inclusive! They never separated the two, although their separation would have been in the interest of the department as well as the public. When we know that the theft of electricity is closely related to the general corruption in the country for which the rich and the ruling classes of Pakistan are responsible, why WAPDA should have continued to carry the burden of others on its head and for so long?
Although doubtful, but one may agree, reluctantly, that perhaps initially the theft was not so big a problem to attract attention. But WAPDA is now 60 years (1958-2008) old and it is almost certain that presently the theft is more than the transmission and distribution losses (actual line losses). Therefore no reforms in power sector in general and of power distribution in particular will be successful unless the problem of theft and pilferage of power is tackled.
“Transmission and distribution losses in the USA were estimated at 7.2% in 1995, and in the UK at 7.4% in 1998.” [1] “Transmission and distribution losses are related to how heavily the system is loaded. U.S.-wide transmission and distribution losses were about 5% in 1970, and grew to 9.5% in 2001, due to heavier utilization and more frequent congestion.” [2]
Dawn editorially commented on Sept. 15, 2008 that KESC’s “Transmission and distribution losses, which include power pilferage, still stand at around 35 per cent.”
It was reported on May 15, 2008 about the previous day’s press conference: “Asked about the current line losses of the WAPDA, he (Water and Power Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf) said, they claim these to be a little over 20 per cent but ‘I think line losses are not less than 40 per cent.’” [3] And another report on July 28, 2008 about the same statement said: “Officially it has stated that the Wapda’s line losses hover around 30 per cent. On the other hand, Water and Power Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf … [when] asked in this regard spontaneously responded by saying that he believed that the line losses were at 40 per cent.” [4]
In such a situation, what can you expect from such a department in a country where, whatever the rhetoric, the masses mean nothing, rather absolutely nothing, to the rich and the powerful? Therefore the bottom line is that the WAPDA’s paying customers are overburdened to the maximum possible limits determined by WAPDA and government higher ups. But as if this was not enough; therefore WAPDA resorted to illegal measures of installing fast meters and sending inflated bills about which the people have become too familiar.
WAPDA’s story has been a smaller version of Pakistan’s own story. There was never anybody really in charge. Pakistan and so WAPDA was a property whose owners – the peoples of Pakistan — were not of age yet. They were minors. And those who became powerful could never discover that there was always the grand ideal of nation building in front of and awaiting them, and that they had to do it on their own, without being compelled by anyone. Wasn’t it really a free hand for them? Had they been designers, the material was available to be moulded into a good and enduring product. But they were men of small minds who, at every step, betrayed the ideal. The power holders, invariably, proved to be gamblers amidst the masses who were not awake.
WAPDA is a cancer patient and the disease is in its advanced stage. As WAPDA’s health cannot be improved without Pakistan becoming a healthy state, therefore our approach to WAPDA’s health cannot be separated from our overall approach for salvaging Pakistan from its failure and impending break-up and their consequences for the peoples and the region.
All this points out in the direction that in a revolutionary Pakistan, WAPDA will be totally recast. It is our cautious assessment that the department will become so efficient and forward looking that it will become unrecognizable by those who had experienced the old department but remained abroad during the reforms. Political leadership will define what it wants from the department, the quality of its services and the range of profitability, for example. Further, the political leadership will select the top manager or a management team to carry out the mission. The management will be totally empowered and there will be no interference in its day-to-day working. This culture will be nurtured religiously. Culture of sifarish will have to be finally buried deep in Pakistan. An example will be set how a failing enterprise can be made profitable, not at the cost of but in the service of the people who, then, give their approval to the policies and the performance of the department. This is a sort of war of survival for us.
Therefore, we will not privatize WAPDA. We will reform it. We will make it a working entity which means load-shedding will become history. As thing stand today, peoples of Pakistan cannot afford IPPs. Bringing IPPs into Pakistan, in fact, was the surrender by the government of the time before the problem, which was that WAPDA needed reforms. They wished away the problem. And they behaved in a monarchical way. But left unattended, the problem went from bad to worse. And, now, for everybody to see, it has become very compounded.
WAPDA will no more sell power to individual consumers as at present. It will sell in thoak or bulk to carefully selected and trained power retailers or to cooperatives. The bulk will not be big and the big business will not be allowed to enter into this power retail sector. The power retailers will be small-scale family business owners making reasonable profits. It will be a long term planning guaranteeing stability in policies to those who will be able to make honesty the corner stone of their businesses.
Transition to the new system will be difficult as theft is well entrenched and in the beginning the Retailers will not be able to overcome the problem on their own. Steps will be taken in aid of the Retailers to end the theft once for all. Theft of electricity will be heavily punished. At a certain stage, the electricity thief may be denied reconnection for a specified period, which may increase proportionately to the size of the offence.
All procedures will be simplified. For example a licensed lineman will be able to give even new connection to an applicant without the involvement of any other official of the department. All present setup of sub divisions/divisions and upward in the distribution department once exposed to reforms will clearly be visible to the people as redundant and therefore will be abolished. Power Retailers will finally stand on their feet and serve the consumers. Where the jurisdiction of the retailers end, the department will maintain and develop the system.
Like those who fail to do hard work when life gives them chance and end up becoming thieves or robbers, WAPDA is no more the electricity department but a ‘national pickpocket’.
WAPDA has failed as a public utility. The logic is to privatize it and the process in this direction has already been set in motion. But what if the time for privatization, as generally understood today, is also over? And this is what this manifesto wants to tell to the people from every rooftop. This is Pakistan’s reality today.
Since the very early stage of capitalism, we have been its appendix. We never wanted and never had the will to change this status and thus lost the opportunity to build Pakistan into a capitalist state when there was time for it. This could have brought independence in its wake thus making Pakistan an important player, if not one of the leading players, of the world. This would have been like an individual’s or family’s struggle to escape poverty and join the upper strata of society. This lost opportunity will never come back. And now capitalism is in crisis. And China’s experiment is very new and cannot be relied upon. Therefore no person in his right mind can promise uplift to the peoples of Pakistan on the old, beaten, tested and failing route of capitalist development. And, on the other hand, ‘socialism’ has either failed or has become ‘apostate’ and capitalist. Therefore we have to take a fresh look on the whole issue unencumbered by any ideology. And the idea, therefore, of ‘Non-Ideology’ and ‘The Driver’s Way’ — who knows where he is going and decides from moment to moment what the next right step is — seems to be perhaps the only right attitude we need to learn, adopt and inculcate as a culture in Pakistan.
I believe those who are or can be willing to stick to the responsibility of owning and lifting the people from poverty and indignity will give a fresh look to perceptions which either mean nothing or can only bog us down. If we want to move forward, we have to learn to avoid such pitfalls. ■
Judiciary
The courts’ structure and hierarchy will be made simple, from bottom to top, it will be: Civil Court/Judicial Magistrate’s Court, District and Sessions Judge’s Court, High Court, and Supreme Court.
All other courts, which are too many, such as Banking Courts, Anti-Terrorism Courts, Drug Courts, Labour Courts, Services Tribunals, Anti-Corruption Courts, Consumer Courts, Cooperative Societies’ Registrars’ Courts, City Government and other departmental courts and Magistracies, Anti-Narcotics Courts, Federal Shariat Court, National Accountability Bureau (NAB) Courts, and Islamabad High Court will be abolished. Provincial and Wafaqi Muhtasibs (Ombudsmen) will also be abolished. Moreover courts have to be genuinely made courts and not also another and hidden hand of the administration.
Lawyers after a certain period of practice should, by default, become, if they choose to, nikah registrars, oath commissioners and notaries public.
Moreover, lawyers with reasonable experience and appropriate training can be given certain judicial powers under the oversight of a court in matters where a court’s time and energies can be saved for more arduous preoccupations.
And, as a commitment and sacred mission, judiciary will be made to stand on its own and the administration will not be left with any tool to influence it. It will be possible to make judiciary totally autonomous with its sources of funding in its own hands. It will also be possible that the power to appoint judges is given to the judiciary and lawyers’ bodies. Why not, what is the problem?
The time is not inopportune. The ‘slaves’ if they want can get their freedom, cut their chains and throw them away. It is another matter if they had started liking their chains during a very prolonged period of slavery. Humanity has been so much insulted in history that getting respect looks unbelievable and awkward to ‘ordinary’ human beings. And if and when some of them happen to get it, they become worse oppressors than their former oppressors. Not insulting others and not allowing others to insult you, mankind has yet to create such a culture on this earth. ■
Clean Drinking Water for All
First, the two basics of the issue – the quantity and quality of water in Pakistan — must be understood. About the quantity of water: The water table going down which is well known gives the clear evidence that groundwater in the country is being over-exploited. Therefore, there is an urgent need for bringing water withdrawal into balance with recharge.
And about the quality of water, we can focus here very briefly on ‘A Special Report’ 2007 of World Wide Fund (WWF): ‘Pakistan’s Waters at Risk’. It says: “The stress on water resources of the country is from multiple sources. Rapid urbanization, increased industrial activity and dependence of the agricultural sector on chemicals and fertilizers have led to water pollution. Deterioration in water quality and contamination of lakes, rivers and groundwater aquifers has, therefore, resulted in increased water borne diseases and negative impacts on human health.”
But, more fundamentally, the population growth and higher consumption levels of its various segments caused these changes to materialize. The above observations about the “stress on water” could not have been true, for example, about Pakistan of 1950.
In Pakistan ninety-nine per cent of industrial effluent and 92 per cent of urban wastewater is discharged untreated into rivers, canals, water courses and the sea making industrial and municipal sectors responsible for direct and open, but localized and not inevitable, pollution. In agricultural sector, fertilizers and pesticides, mostly insecticides, used by the farmers mix with rain and irrigation water, which then goes down the soil and enters the ground aquifer contaminating water available for extraction – a widespread, indirect, hidden and in the given circumstances inevitable pollution of groundwater.
And there is no regular monitoring programme to assess surface and groundwater qualities. “There is also no regular monitoring of drinking water quality.”
In a 2001 study carried out by the Pakistan Council for Research in Water Resources (PCRWR), “all samples from four cities, and half the samples from seventeen cities indicated bacteriological contamination. In addition, arsenic above the WHO limit of 10 ppb (parts per billion) was found in some samples collected from eight cities. The same study also indicated how the uncontrolled discharge of industrial effluent has affected surface and groundwater, identifying the presence of lead, chromium and cyanide in groundwater samples from industrial areas of Karachi.”
In a second study in 2004, preliminary results indicated “no appreciable improvement, while a separate study (2006) reported that in Sindh almost 95% of shallow groundwater supplies were bacteriologically contaminated.”
“In 107 samples of groundwater collected from various locations in the country between 1988 and 2000, 31 were found to have contamination of pesticides beyond safety limits. A pilot project was undertaken in 1990-91 in Samundari, Faisalabad District, over an area of 1,000 square kilometers, to look into the extent of groundwater contamination by agrochemicals. In an analysis of ten groundwater samples drawn from a depth of 10-15 m, seven were contaminated with one or more pesticides (PCRWR 1991). The study concluded that the contamination had reached only the shallow aquifers; however, there were evidences that it was gradually reaching the deeper aquifers as well. As there has been a four-fold increase in the use of pesticides in the country since 1990, the contamination levels are likely to have increased significantly. In addition to municipal and industrial effluents, contamination of groundwater by arsenic is also becoming a serious problem. In Sindh and the Punjab, approximately 36% of the population is exposed to a level of contamination higher than 10ppb and 16% is exposed to contamination of 50ppb.”
A study (PCRWR 2004) of eleven cities of Punjab showed “an excess of arsenic and fluoride concentrations in water supply systems of six cities; Multan, Bhawalpur, Shaikhupura, Kasur, Gujranwala, and Lahore.” “A survey (2005) carried out by National Institute of Health (NIH), revealed that 75% of water in Islamabad and 87% in Rawalpindi is unsafe for human consumption.”
The links between water quality and health risks are well established. “A study conducted by UNICEF (2006) found that 20-40% of the hospital beds in Pakistan are occupied by patients suffering from water-related diseases.” The report concludes: “In conclusion, even though water is one of the most important requirements for life and Pakistan is a semi-arid country, water use practices in the country fall far short of the required minimum for water conservation and water quality. In simple terms, Pakistan’s water is drying up” and what remains is heavily polluted. We need to make sure that our practices change if Pakistan is to survive the next few decades.”
As this problem was becoming bigger and known, what were the ‘leaders’ – civil, military, religious, secular or of any other brand — who held power were doing? Obviously, they were ‘developing’ the country in their own images! They were manufacturing atom bombs, missiles, conquering Afghanistan, Kashmir and even India, building motorways, distributing free yellow cabs, distributing government jobs to their cronies, building GHQ and Defence Housing Societies and their duplicates, doing ‘Kargil’ to India, fighting for America, stealing public money and accumulating it abroad while begging all the time for dollars all over the world. Where could fit ‘clean drinking water for the people’ in these minds?
But when the quality of Pakistan’s waters became doubtful there was a solution for these rulers and the rich — ‘bottled water’. A plastic bottle replaced the dinner table glass jug — solving one problem of the rich, to begin with, and creating many for the many who were not rich. Nestlé ‘Pure Life’ drinking bottled water was, for example, first launched in Pakistan in 1998.
The bottled water market in Pakistan (2005) “has witnessed annual growth rates of 40 percent, and after the introduction of Nestlé’s ‘Pure Life’, it had the fastest worldwide growth in bottled water in 2000, at 140%.” In Pakistan’s water market (2005), there were approximately 15-26 permanent players. In summer, this number increased up to 70-150. About 50 percent disappeared and were replaced by new brands yearly. Nestlé controlled “the majority of the market (over 50 percent) with its brands ‘Pure Life’, AVA and Fontalia.”
The rich and the powerful got their problem solved by a very powerful company — Nestlé. They have nothing to worry. What to talk of America’s power, which is behind Pakistan, even the drinking water provider of the rich and the powerful, is ‘stronger’ than Pakistan! “Taking into consideration figures from 2002, Pakistan’s GDP of 60.2bn. USD was exceeded by Nestlé S.A. sales of 74.02bn. USD and Pakistan’s GDP growth rate of 3.9 percent failed to keep pace with the 14.5 percent sales increase, 27.4 percent increase in operating profits, and 57.2 percent increase in net profits earned by Nestlé Milkpak Ltd.”
Obviously, our rulers are not learning. Not only corrupt, they are un-enlightened and culturally degraded. If it goes like this, and it will go like this as long as they are there, a time may come when they make the air so much polluted that to breathe it and in it as we do today would become repulsive? And they will be the first amongst whom the demand for ‘clean air for breathing’ will crystallize, as it happened for ‘clean water for drinking’, which created the business of ‘bottled water’ for the first time in Pakistan. A ‘bottled air’ with associated business of head or face gear for breathing may be in the pipeline to serve the rich and the powerful to begin with again.
Solving the problems of the rich only and creating many for many who are not rich must end. And we will do this. This manifesto seeks to initiate and build a culture of working for the collective good of the people. Nestlé selling ‘bottled water’ to the rich of Pakistan means that the company’s strengths and capabilities were not put to the right use and for the common good of our people. This was the job of the leadership of Pakistan. The company is too big and selling ‘bottled water’ is too simple a job, but profits are good. But if we have projects which are big and for the community, a big company like Nestlé may like or may be persuaded, for example, to invest in them. But such projects cannot come up automatically. We have to work for them.
The project of ‘Clean Drinking Water for All’ must start at the earliest. Samples from all drinking water sources, even from the remotest corners of the country, which people use for drinking must be tested regularly. The data must be permanently stored for future use. All coming data must be reviewed by experts to recommend immediate interim measures to the people and provide necessary additives if any. A full-fledged laboratory system has to be put in place, which ultimately should become community based. From such beginnings must rise the sustainable structure, we envisage, for ‘Clean Drinking water For All’ in the country. This system will also be the foundation for universal health coverage for the whole of Pakistan. ■
Bus Rapid Transit
“A high-quality public transport system remains an indispensable element in creating a city where people and community come first.” But a new public transport system does not create itself. “Somewhere, somehow, someone must act as the catalyst to set out a dramatic new vision for the city’s public transport system. This catalyst for change may be a political official, a non-governmental organization, or simply a concerned citizen. Ultimately, though, political leadership, must take upon the task of running a vision into a reliable project.” And “in the developing world, BRT systems should always be designed to function with no operational subsidies from the project’s outset.” These observations from the ‘Bus Rapid Transit Planning Guide June 2007’ [1] should streamline our thinking at least for this section of the manifesto.
This is about solving the problem of public transport in the cities of Pakistan. Every Pakistani knows what is load shedding and I have explained elsewhere how, finally, it will be brought to an end. But contrary to this we need to introduce immediately another ‘shedding’, which is right and beneficial and with the passage of time, if possible, to be increased instead of decreasing it. This is what I have called ‘car shedding’. To set an example, to begin with, I write this for the city of Lahore.
After thorough home work when the main outlines of reforms in this sector become clear, we have to prepare our people for the expected changes so that they prepare themselves and do not waste their money on things, which will not last. At this stage, this is possible to say that cars will have no bright future in Lahore, but bicycles will have. Parking places will be marked and fixed. Therefore in front of shops, no parking of any kind – car, motorcycle or cycle — will be allowed on roads. Roads will be clear for traffic. Roads are for transit not for parking. Footpaths for pedestrians and dedicated cycle lanes will be an integral part of roads of Lahore. I believe it will be possible to make parents feel safe that their children cycle to schools if they are not far. And when school education is made uniform in curriculum and reasonably uniform in quality, children can study at one of the nearby schools.
We must visualize the public transport system for Lahore as of high quality and car competitive at an affordable cost. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system like that of Bogotá, Columbia what they locally call TransMilenio will be feasibility-studied, understood, improved and adopted. This “system provides one of the best examples of combining private sector competition with strong public oversight.” It is simple, far cheaper than other options, and nearer to the presently existing facilities available in Lahore. “The former mayor of Curitiba (Brazil) used a great deal of creativity in developing a ‘surface metro’ that was the forerunner of BRT” — the first 20-kilometers of which was opened for service in 1974. “A BRT system will typically cost 4 to 20 times less than a tram or Light Rail Transit (LRT) system and 10 to 100 times less than a metro system.” But this is only possible if both leaderships – the one that puts this system in place and the other which later runs it – are cultured and enlightened and have real concern for the people and their city.
There are “Segregated busways or bus-only roadways predominantly in the median of the roadways.” A big bus is like joining two Daewoo buses – or even making it bigger — which run in Lahore to make one 6 or 8 wheeler bus. Some people call it Surface Subway. In the middle of the busy multilane avenues have been built bus stations. At the station two lanes on each side are for the use of the BRT. But then onward on the avenue the two lanes adjoining the central divider – if one for going from then the other for coming to a station — are dedicated for the big buses. The buses pull right up to the platform in the station, which provide level access between the platform and vehicle floors so that the commuters generally and wheel chairs and older people particularly can enter and come out easily. Then it is not one or two narrow doors buses as we have in Lahore where many people cannot enter or come out simultaneously. In the BRT buses practically the whole side of the bus facing the platform opens up and people can embark and disembark very quickly.
Before 1998, in Bogotá, when BRT was not there a distance of about 30 kilometers took about 2 hours 15 minutes, which now takes about 55 minutes. The BRT transports about 1.3 million people daily and its average speed is about 28 to 40 kilometers per hour. At peak hour it has about 1000 buses in operation. The system is run from a central control room like Air Traffic Control. The controller can talk to any driver individually whose picture pops up on the controller’s computer screen.
For the suburbs there are smaller feeder buses, which are free. They pick people and bring them to the bigger station. You pay at the station as a “pre-board fare collection and fare verification” system is in place. Bicycle parking facilities at the stations are free. Many arrive by bicycle and leave by bicycle. If 20 people come on bicycle, it is one feeder bus less in the system. This saves a lot and therefore bicycle is one of the critical parts of the mass transit system, which is high tech and advanced than anywhere in the world.
“The appeal of the BRT is the ability to deliver a high-quality mass transit system within the budgets of most municipalities. BRT has proven that the barrier to effective transport is not cost or high technology. Planning and implementing a good BRT system is not easy. … The principal ingredient, however, is not technical skill: It is the political will to make it happen.”
“In total, approximately 40 cities on six continents have implemented ‘BRT’ system, and even greater amount of systems are either in planning or construction.” As of March 2007 BRT systems are in the planning stage in 5 cities of India (Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Delhi, Indore, Jaipur), 8 cities of China, 4 cities of the UK, 9 cities of Canada and many of the United States.
The system opened 2 of its 22 lines in December 2000. “Simultaneously, Bogota has implemented many complementary measures that support public transport usage. These measures include 300 kilometers all new cycle ways, pedestrian and public space upgrades, a Sunday closing of 120 kilometers of roadway to private motorized vehicles and the world’s largest car-free weekday. Additionally, Bogotá has implemented car restriction measures through parking restrictions and a programme that only permits peak-hour vehicle use on certain days, based on one’s license plate number.”
Car Shedding should start immediately with the beginning of the feasibility studies. Why to put more cars on the roads if there is not enough space? There should not be more cars, on a particular day at a particular time on a particular road of Lahore, for example, than a pre-determined feasible number. But this step need not wait our implementation of this manifesto. If the authorities are capable and want to restrict the number of cars on Lahore roads today, it will be a step in the right direction giving the city a new experience well in time.
Railways and PIA
The British did not build Indian Railways to be cut and that too abruptly into three pieces in 1947. It was an absurd situation. Two of the three clearly separate pieces geographically separated – Pakistan Western Railway and Pakistan Eastern Railway — coming under one administration was another absurdity. And the way these two became independently administered in 1971 was still another absurdity. Isn’t it strange the question of feasibility never arose? It is no time now to go into the fate of Bangladesh Railways except to wish them well, the legacy of an outdated and failed Pakistan Railway is with us today. The burden to transform this wreck into a modern and working Railway is waiting to fall on those who will now civilize and genuinely build Pakistan.
Along with initiating preliminary studies to arrive at which way to move forward in this field, a very keen look, first of all, at the Indian Railways will be a must. I believe this would also help in remaining simple while building the futuristic Pakistan Railways.
In his speech, introducing the Railway Budget 2008-09 on 26th February 2008, Shri Lalu Prasad said : “Each year we have progressively raised the bar based on our own successes. The cash surplus of the Railways rose steadily from Rs 9000 cr in 2005 to Rs 14000 cr in 2006 to Rs 20000 cr in 2007. The august House would be happy to know that in 2007-08, we will create history once again by turning in a cash surplus before Dividend of Rs. 25000 cr. Our operating ratio has also improved to 76%. Indian Railways is a Government Department. However, we take pride in the fact that our achievement, on the benchmark of net surplus before Dividend, makes us better than most of the Fortune 500 companies in the world. We are taking the Indian Railways to unprecedented heights. On this path of progress, 14 lakh rail employees have worked shoulder to shoulder with the passenger as a guiding beacon to write a story of success in which several billions have been earned despite reduction in fares. It is for this reason that Indian Railways has received acclaim world over as a unique mega enterprise. This success is the result of out of the box thinking and a passion to follow the road less traveled.”
About the Public Private Partnership, he said: “Railways would have to make heavy investments for the expansion of the network, modernization and upgradation of the technology and for providing world class facilities to the customers in the coming years. For this purpose, we have made a plan to invest Rs. 2,50,000 cr, within the next 5 years. For funding a large portion of this plan, use of internal resources and borrowings will be resorted to. However it would be difficult to finance such a large investment solely from Railways own resources. Therefore, we have started many PPP schemes for attracting an investment of Rs. 1,00,000 cr over the next 5 years.”
The mention of Public Private Partnership here is with a design and of significance. It seems things will also go this way in Pakistan and the region when this manifesto is implemented.
PIA: Pakistan International Airlines will be turned into Pakistan Internal Airlines. PIA’s all international operations will be closed. Haj flights, if feasible, will be retained with the PIA.
A Reforms Agenda for Complete Overhaul
Pakistan needs complete ‘overhaul’. The country needs reforms in each and every sector. The questions are what reforms and how will they be implemented? What follow cannot be all reforms needed in Pakistan. But they convey the spirit of Al-Manshoor and set the direction. One aspect of this spirit is the inclusiveness of all people in the reforms in, for example, education, drinking water and health etc. We intend to implement what has been given below and add new reforms in this list as and when circumstances will allow.
Education: There will be one syllabus in the schools and colleges of Pakistan. Text Book Boards will be wound up and the books produced by them will be withdrawn as they are far below the standards of a good education system of today and tomorrow. What they call ‘curriculum development’ has to end. There is no need to invent the wheel again in Pakistan only to put ideology into it. Our students can directly benefit from good curriculums being taught abroad in the countries where stable and high quality education systems are in place.
We need another reform, which is long overdue. A programme will be launched where it will be possible to get support and cooperation of madrassah owners and/or operators to merge their madrassahs in the school system of Pakistan where a uniform syllabus will be taught. There will be an option for a madrassah to become either a private or government school.
‘Old is gold’; but the successive uncultured and bigoted rulers were incapable of appreciating this age-old principle. We will uplift old institutions like the Punjab University and the UET of Lahore. The rush of opening new universities, new campuses of the existing universities, new medical colleges usually on merely political grounds or merely as business ventures is unfortunate. Steps will be taken to clean this mess and prestige of institutions will not only be restored but also established anew on secure grounds.
Health: A universal health coverage for all will be devised.
Agriculture: Whatever happened in the past with whatever reasons, agriculture sector always trailed behind. There are so many steps needed to correct this situation. Agriculture will be made the cornerstone of Pakistan’s economy. Village life will be culturally uplifted to bring it at par with urban life. We will take steps that migration to big cities is minimised or even reversed. Overall thrust of policies will attract bright young people to, or retain them in, the villages. If needed more agricultural colleges/universities will be established. Agriculture colleges/universities will be equipped that they are able to spearhead this bold new transformation in Pakistan. In fact by giving such place to agriculture, we will be doing what is just right and natural in Pakistan. [To be concluded]
Jagirdary: We will finally end if and whatever the so-called jagirdari is there in Pakistan. To fix parameters for this reform, we can look into India’s land reforms and/or any better suggestion.
Agricultural Land Allotments: All agricultural land allotments will be cancelled except when the alloted land had been or is the source of subsistence for the concerned family and for which the upper ceiling should be from about 12 to 25 acres or thereabout. The appropriated land should go to those who have no or less land and are the closest claimants.
Kalabagh Dam: We will get another and final assessment from a team of reputed experts. In the meantime we will invite written objections. If experts clear the dam and we are able to find solutions to the, obviously valid, objections, work on the dam will start. We will not manipulate in any way but if others try to do that we will defeat them in the open political struggle. The issue will be taken directly to the people and their support will be sought throughout Pakistan. But if the experts want some changes, they will be made; if they reject, the dam will not be built.
New Constitution: The wide range changes we envisage are no doubt revolutionary. Whatever revolutionary legacies of the past – good or bad — what our mindset will accept presently as ‘revolutionary changes’ is the total negation of what is going on today. We will not accept the status quo whether of our own position or the position of the rich and the powerful. And it will be too arduous, rather wasting our nation’s energies, to try to affect such wide range changes within the four corners of the present constitution. But, then, legality must also be maintained. Therefore the answer lies in a great unity of the people. And when we reach there, it will be possible and incumbent upon us to make a new constitution for Pakistan.
Provinces and Sub-Provinces: Not going into what have been the demands and what presently are there about the need of creating some new province in addition to the present set-up in Pakistan, we will be open to, helpful and work for any new arrangement if a people or community gets its self-respect restored or enhanced by getting a new administrative unit. It can be a new province or a sub-province or any new category not so far suggested but may come up during the work needed to be done to meet these requirements of our people. But these steps should not create unmanageable new problems.
Tribal Areas: All Tribal Areas, Northern Areas and Azad Kashmir will be integrated within the overall structure of the country. Tehsil and district boundaries will be demarcated wherever needed. Whether some area should join an already existing district or tehsil or a new unit needs to be created will be looked into. And any proposed step will only be implement-able if accepted by the concerned people through their free votes.
Local Governments: Musharraf’s Devolution Plan 2000 of District/Tehsil/Town Nazim system will be totally scrapped. Ayub Khan’s Basic Democracy, Zia ul Haq’s Islamization and usharraf’s Devolution Plan were basically manipulative measures for perpetuating and prolonging their rule. There were bad intents behind them; they were anti-democracy and therefore anti-people steps.
Plot Allotments: For all ‘allotted’ plots where the allottees did not pay the market price of the day, they will have to pay the differential to retain the plots they happen to possess.
Qurbani: It is anarchic situation now on the occasion of Eid-al-Azha and for few subsequent days. The State must intervene and with private participation, ‘Qurbani’ should be institutionalized. We will do this.
Media: Media has to produce quality. Steps will be taken to ensure this.
Sewerage Systems: In Pakistan ninety-nine per cent of industrial effluent and 92 per cent of urban wastewater is discharged untreated into rivers, canals, water courses and the sea making industrial and municipal sectors responsible for direct and open, but localized and not inevitable, pollution. Some immediate steps along with long term solutions for all cities and towns in Pakistan will be undertaken. The engineering skills available in Pakistan and with Pakistanis abroad will be utilized to reduce not only costs but enrich our society culturally when we make concerted efforts to innovate. Our approach in this and other areas of reforms will definitely be a novel experience for Pakistanis.
Quackery: Quackery in the medical profession will be strictly prohibited and eliminated. A study will be imitated to determine the future of Homeopathy and Hikmat on the basis of basic principles and in the light of experiences in Pakistan and abroad.
Volumes of Mosque Loud Speakers: Any mosque serves an area and we propose that the azan of that mosque should be audible to the area it serves. Similarly a khateeb while addressing a fixed audience should be audible to that audience and not beyond.
Friday and other Religious Sermons: Religious sermons must be directional and purposeful. And for this the direction and the purpose will be broadly defined. The khateebs and orators have, therefore, a limited mandate given to them by the society. Within the mandate defined by the society, the khateebs and orators should fulfill their duties.
Vulgarity: Vulgarity in media, films, dramas and shows will be ended.
Labour Unions: Labour Unions must be strengthened intellectually.
Stock Exchanges: My interim assessment is that stock exchanges should be closed. They are the centers of gambling and manipulation. They rob the gullible. Businesses are serious matters. Other ways must be found that real investors are not blocked but facilitated and rewarded.
Steps to Discourage Drinking and Smoking: Not cosmetic but real steps will be taken to reduce smoking and drinking in the country.
Unethical Practices in Professions: All private professions must have strong oversight bodies. They must ensure that what is not morally justified should not happen. It cannot be free for all at the cost of the people. No professional should cheat people. And incompetence and cheating go hand in hand.
Islamic Calendar: Islamic Calendar will be adopted and suggested, but not imposed. The controversy of moon-sighting will end for the willing. The Ruet-Hilal Committee will be disbanded.
Languages: All languages of Pakistan will be further uplifted. One of the many steps will be that all students all over the country will be introduced to all the languages of the country during their school and college days. Not to overburden them further, this course will be mild but prolonged and existing burdens of other unnecessary courses will be removed.
Fixing Levels of Cities’ Roads and Streets: I believe many of us are aware of this problems. There is a sort of anarchy in the cities. Departments do whatever they like. There is no overall norms or design. Many people had to raise the ceilings of their houses. Whenever a road is repaired, it is raised. A project will be initiated to fix the level of city roads taking into account all factors, in particular the drainage requirements of the cities.
Farm House Culture: Farm House Culture which seems to have begun recently by the new rich with corruption money will be nipped in the bud. The rich should be more innovative and find productive ways to satisfy their ‘shauq’ or change them. Their acts should not damage others in any way – culturally or otherwise. This simple fact is not recognized at all in the society. It has to change.
Property Records: A project to prepare computerized property records of all properties in the country, urban as well as rural, will be started. As the work proceeds its results will progressively be made available to the public for feedback and subsequent corrections. It will take long time to complete this project. In the meantime the present system will continue. The project should complete with least inconvenience to the public.
Elevated Expressway and GHQ Projects Scrapped: While I was in the completion stage of writing this manifesto, the Punjab Chief Minister inaugurated work (24-10-2008) on the Elevated Expressway to be built in Rawalpindi from the Mall to Faizabad. And on 28-10-2008, “being cognizant of the financial crunch faced by Pakistan”, the Chief of the Army Staff suspended the construction work on the new GHQ project in Islamabad. According to reports “nearly 10 to 15 percent work” has already been completed on this project on “about 2500 acres of land”.
There is the same mindset behind both these projects, which likes to build new, shining, big, and showy and therefore unnecessary things. This mindset has not the remotest idea to remain responsible, simple and feasible when utilizing public money. They never consider state funds available to them as peoples’ money. This mindset is not acceptable to us even if Pakistan is rich. This mindset represents lower culture and lower civilization – a sort of ganwarpan – of those who got easy money in Pakistan. This mindset has to be defeated to move forward in Pakistan.
Therefore this manifesto scraps both these projects for good – no elevated expressway and no new GHQ – as there are other decent ways of doing things without wasting and eating public money.
Students Unions: Not only students unions will be banned, the very idea will be defeated. In Pakistan students’ union activities have always spoiled students. Political parties, the State and the governments of the day have all played with the future of the students by using them for promoting their agendas. All student bodies allied with political parties must not only be banned but also scattered and their ideologies defeated in an open struggle. They and their mentors must be brought down from their pedestals. They have harmed the nation too much.
Evacuee Property: On the day this manifesto is released which, any evacuee property anywhere in the country under litigation will be taken over by the State.
Expansion of Cities: Thoughtless expansion of cities at the expense of agricultural land is not acceptable. And even if the land is less productive or barren, the way cities in Pakistan have been allowed to expand cannot be justified. A city becomes more expensive by unnecessary expansion. The reason of this mindless expansion was not genuine demand but exploitation of the real would-be house owners. More money was extracted from their pockets – the end users — for the plots of land they purchased for building their houses to live in. As the rulers were corrupt and manipulative, they did not mind and tolerated fraudsters from their ranks operating freely in the country enticing people to invest their money for high profits in their phony ‘schemes’. Starting, perhaps, for the first time during Bhutto’s rule, the so-called ‘finance companies’ practically played thhaggi with the people. How many times, someone must come forward to tell. The truth is that Pakistan par hukmrani thhaggi ka doosra nam hai. In such states of affairs of the country, one can understand peoples’ difficulty in finding safe places for their savings. Therefore their safest choice fell on a plot of land. We do not need this fraud-infested and insecurity-driven expansion of our cities. This must change.
For this, policy will be made that in cities the pressure on horizontal expansion is diverted towards vertical expansion and building on vacant spaces.
Newspapers: Newspapers should have news and views only. They should not have advertisements. Why people should be burdened unnecessarily? Newspapers should be people-friendly and are basically meant to inform and educate them. But this duty is secondary and its sanctity is not respected. Therefore, steps will be taken to correct this situation as a part of other reforms for the achievement of good culture in the country.
Beggary: Steps will be taken to eliminate beggary.
Travelling Allowance for Students: Students will be paid their traveling expenses by the provincial governments through their colleges. Their free ride on buses will end. This practice has been developing bad habits in the students and conflicts between bus operators and them for a long time.
Food Security for All: Steps will be taken which, inshaallah, will last to ensure availability of essential food items for all. The so-called market will never be allowed to create crisis. Systems will be devised to make each village, town and city – or city parts – secure for the availability of essential food items.
PTCL: Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited needed reforms, not privatization. Privatization in a non-functional state simply means opening all doors wide open for loot and plunder by new owners of privatized enterprises, their so-called regulators and political higher-ups. Therefore, the privatization of the PTCL was wrong and not in the interests of the people. We will take it back and reform it. Yes, as in the case of Railways, we should keep our doors open for Public Private Partnership. ■
F.C. College
We will make a policy about Christian missionary work in Pakistan in view of the damages inflicted by the United States-led West on the Muslim world. As Britain is second in command of the campaign against the Muslim world, the policy should include measures about various church and other properties and interests that came into existence due to British colonialism in the subcontinent. Differentiating between Enlightened West and the US-led West, we should not sit idle and do nothing against those who have damaged us so heavily and/or are their allies. It must be mentioned here that Musharraf should not have handed over the Foreman Christian (F.C.) College of Lahore to a United States church.
All of us had felt humiliated when the college was taken over on the day the US-led forces, which covertly included Israel, invaded Iraq. But, now, for us, in the overall spirit of this manifesto, the right approach will be to take back the college from the church. And we will do precisely that. The depth of my commitment to undo this act of Musharraf is everywhere in my work which was published during 2006 in which I proposed a movement in Lahore [F.C. College Movement] “to take back the college from an American church”.
Environment
For this manifesto I accept what the United Nations Development Programme’s 2007/2008 Human Development Report says. Below I have reproduced very briefly the fundamentals of this problem as they stand today and have been given in this report. What has been quoted is to set our direction in this field. We will make these issues an integral part of our politics. We will take steps that our culture becomes supportive instead of becoming hindrance if and when any decision is taken by any government to impalement policies to achieve the goals set in this report, its subsequent or any other update. This chapter of Al-Manshoor should, therefore, be considered as potential, stored or reserved energy, which should come into action whenever time comes to devise specific practical steps in support of the “Environment”.
“What we do today about climate change has consequences that will last a century or more. … The heat trapping gases we send into the atmosphere in 2008 will stay there until 2108 and beyond. We are therefore making choices today that will affect our own lives, but even more so the lives of our children and grandchildren. …”
“A worldwide average 3° centigrade increase (compared to preindustrial temperatures) over the coming decades would result in a range of localized increases that could reach twice as high in some locations. The effect that increased droughts, extreme weather events, tropical storms and sea level rises will have on large parts of Africa, on many small island states and coastal zones will be inflicted in our lifetimes. …”
“In the long run climate change is a massive threat … and in some places it is already undermining the … efforts to reduce extreme poverty. …”
[The irony is that] “those who have largely caused the problem—the rich countries—are not going to be those who suffer the most in the short term. It is the poorest who did not and still are not contributing significantly to green house gas emissions that are the most vulnerable. …”
“At the start of the 21st Century, we … are confronted with the ‘fierce urgency’ of a crisis that links today and tomorrow. That crisis is climate change. It is still a preventable crisis—but only just. The world has less than a decade to change course. No issue merits more urgent attention—or more immediate action. …”
“The world lacks neither the financial resources nor the technological capabilities to act. If we fail to prevent climate change it will be because we were unable to foster the political will to cooperate. …”
“Global warming is evidence that we are overloading the carrying capacity of the Earth’s atmosphere. Stocks of greenhouse gases that trap heat in the Earth’s atmosphere are accumulating at an unprecedented rate. Current concentrations have reached 380 parts per million (ppm). …”
“All nations and all people share the same atmosphere of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) exceeding the natural range of the last 650,000 years. In the course of the 21st Century, average global temperatures could increase by more than 5°C. …”
“Mahatma Gandhi once reflected on how many planets might be needed if India were to follow Britain’s pattern of industrialization. … we estimate in this Report that if all of the world’s people generated greenhouse gases at the same rate as some developed countries, we would need nine planets. …”
“With the expiry of the current commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, the international community has an opportunity to put that framework in place. Seizing that opportunity will require bold leadership. Missing it will push the world further on the route to dangerous climate change. Developed countries have to take the lead. They carry the burden of historic responsibility for the climate change problem. And they have the financial resources and technological capabilities to initiate deep and early cuts in emissions. …”
“Global warming is already happening. World temperatures have increased by around 0.7°C since the advent of the industrial era—and the rate of increase is quickening. …”
“Business-as-usual trajectories will take the world well beyond that threshold. To have a 50:50 chance of limiting temperature increase to 2°C above preindustrial levels will require stabilization of greenhouse gases at concentrations of around 450ppm CO2e. …”
[But] “Scenarios for the 21st Century point to potential stabilization points in excess of 750ppm CO2e, with possible temperature changes in excess of 5°C. …”
[The result will be that the] “Changed run-off patterns and glacial melt will add to ecological stress, compromising flows of water for irrigation and human settlements in the process. An additional 1.8 billion people could be living in a water scarce environment by 2080. Central Asia, Northern China and the northern part of South Asia face immense vulnerabilities associated with the retreat of glaciers—at a rate of 10–15 meters a year in the Himalayas. Seven of Asia’s great river systems will experience an increase in flows over the short-term, followed by a decline as glaciers melt. …” ■